School Choice and the Public Good: What We Risk When We Ignore Consequences

Across the country, enrollment declines and growing school choice programs are colliding to reshape public education. While some hail vouchers and Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) as giving families “freedom,” the long-term effects for public schools—and the communities they serve—are more complicated.

What the Evidence Shows

1. Enrollment and Closures: A recent report from the Fordham Institute found that about 1 in 12 public schools nationwide lost at least 20% of their enrollment between 2019 and 2023. Under-enrolled schools are far more likely to face closure, and those closures disproportionately hit lower-income and minority communities. Critics, including the National Education Policy Center, caution that many closures stem not just from demographics but from deliberate policies that siphon students (and dollars) into alternatives.

2. Fixed Costs Don’t Disappear: When a student leaves for a private school with a voucher or ESA, a district doesn’t automatically “save” money. Buildings still require heating, buses still operate, and teachers still receive salaries. Research by Bruce Baker and others shows that these fixed costs mean public schools often face higher per-pupil expenses when enrollment drops—leaving fewer resources for the students who remain.

3. State Budgets Under Strain: Arizona is a striking case study. Lawmakers there project the state’s universal ESA program could cost nearly a billion dollars annually. That pressure has led to budget shortfalls, forcing lawmakers to consider cuts elsewhere. When public money follows students to private settings without oversight, taxpayers end up footing a growing bill—often with less left over for public schools.

4. Mixed Outcomes for Students: The academic research is mixed. Some studies in Florida have shown that competition from vouchers has nudged public schools to improve their test scores. However, Louisiana’s voucher program experienced significant declines in achievement for participating students. Indiana’s results are also uneven: early voucher users lost ground in math, while long-term data show neutral effects on the performance of public schools. The lesson? Design matters. Without oversight, outcomes can harm the very students that choice programs claim to help.

5. Segregation and Equity Concerns: Studies from Brookings and The Century Foundation find that choice programs often increase segregation—by race, income, or both. Families with the resources to cover tuition gaps or transport their children are better positioned to use vouchers. At the same time, disadvantaged students may remain in underfunded public schools with fewer peers and supports. Instead of leveling the playing field, poorly designed choice programs can widen divides.

6. Rural Communities Left Behind: In rural areas, choice often offers fewer options—yet districts still lose funding when students depart. That can mean fewer course offerings, shuttered extracurricular activities, and, in some cases, the consolidation or closure of the only local school. The community ripple effects are profound.

How This Connects

Burnout Is Structural: Public schools are already stretched thin, struggling with issues such as behavioral problems, mental health concerns, staffing shortages, and testing mandates. Adding financial strain from unregulated school choice only accelerates burnout and turnover.

Local Control With Accountability: Choice without accountability creates a double standard. Public schools are subject to testing, reporting, and credentialing requirements. Many private schools accepting vouchers face none of these challenges. If taxpayer dollars follow students, then transparency and accountability must follow too.

Invest, Don’t Abandon: The promise of public education is that every child, in every community, deserves opportunity. That means investing in teachers, facilities, and programs—not shifting resources away without safeguards.

What Should Be Done (Real Steps)

• Fiscal Guardrails: States must track the true costs of choice programs and prevent ballooning deficits.

• Accountability Standards: Private schools that receive public funds should meet basic requirements regarding testing, nondiscrimination, and student services.

• Hold-Harmless Funding: Districts need stability to adjust when enrollment shifts—especially in rural areas.

• Teacher and Student Supports: Protect planning time, invest in mental health resources, and reduce redundant mandates so schools can focus on learning.

• Community Voice in Policy: Local educators and families should guide reforms—not be sidelined by top-down mandates.

  
  

Closing: What We Risk

The push for school choice is not just about giving parents options—it’s about reshaping the entire funding and accountability structure of American education. Done without guardrails, it risks closing neighborhood schools, straining budgets, and leaving behind the students who need support the most.

If we truly believe in the promise of education for all, then we must ensure reforms strengthen public schools rather than erode them. To reclaim the classroom, we must safeguard the communities, teachers, and students who depend on them.